The United States, China, and Russia each face major internal structural, economic, and demographic challenges. The choices that each state’s political leadership makes about how to address these domestic dynamics as well as their international challenges will determine the future power they will possess and the future policy options they might p

Russian diplomacy also sustains global reach and influence befitting a Great Power. Moscow’s role as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, with veto power, conveys influence and resonates widely. The Russian Foreign Ministry retains a global voice and influence, especially when blaming the United States and Western partners f

Perhaps more important, the narrative of Russian martial prowess and acumen—earned from a series of unconventional warfare actions during the 2010s—was damaged as the world witnessed exceedingly poor performance in high-intensity, state-to-state combat. Putin has somewhat masked this catastrophe by portraying a durable global military relevance

Russia’s military has suffered staggering losses in Ukraine. The British government has estimated approximately 450,000 Russian casualties in the first 26 months of the full-scale invasion; the BBC has confirmed more than 50,000 fatalities of Russian soldiers.46 Russia’s military equipment losses have been equally stark, encompassing more than